The fate of nuclear arms control hangs in the balance as President Donald Trump seeks to replace the expiring US-Russia arms control deal with a new agreement that includes China. This bold move, part of Trump's self-proclaimed peacemaker agenda, could either mark a significant step towards global disarmament or a potential disaster. The key question is: can China be convinced to join the nuclear arms control talks? The answer may lie in the delicate balance between international cooperation and national interests.
The expiration of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New Start) on Thursday has left the US and Russia without the crucial guardrails that have guided their nuclear weapons programs for over two decades. This development has sparked concerns about a potential arms race between Russia and China, two powers that have increasingly aligned themselves against the Western alliance, which has shown signs of fracturing since Trump's return to office. The situation is further complicated by the ongoing tensions over the war in Ukraine, which could either facilitate or hinder any potential arms control negotiations.
Former senior US officials and analysts warn that a new deal could take years to negotiate and face significant hurdles if China and Russia are to cooperate. The absence of a new treaty leaves the world vulnerable to the unchecked proliferation of nuclear weapons, a scenario that could have dire consequences. As Rose Gottemoeller, the chief negotiator for New Start under the Obama administration, noted, "We are not turning our backs on each other, but it is a dangerous moment because there is nothing planned. What are the next steps?"
Trump's insistence on involving China in the arms control talks is a controversial move. Beijing has stated that it will not start negotiations until the US and Russia reduce their nuclear arsenals, a demand that could stall progress. The White House is considering a two-track approach, with separate negotiations between the US and Moscow, and the US and China, but this strategy is not without its challenges. The tensions over Ukraine could significantly impact the arms control talks, and it remains to be seen how China will respond to Trump's calls for cooperation.
The current nuclear landscape is complex. Russia has 4,309 deployed and stored nuclear warheads, while the US has 3,700. Together, they hold almost 90% of the global nuclear inventory. China, with 600 nuclear warheads, is expected to increase its arsenal to as many as 1,000 by the end of the decade. The US and Russia stopped on-site inspections of each other's nuclear facilities in March 2020 due to the pandemic, and Russia suspended the New Start treaty in 2023, citing America's role in supporting Ukraine. These actions have further complicated the arms control negotiations.
The future of nuclear arms control is uncertain. While Trump has expressed confidence in reaching a new agreement, the prospects of a long-term treaty remain murky. Experts like Stephen Herzog suggest that a political handshake agreement to extend the central limitations of New Start might be possible, but the inclusion of verification measures is uncertain. The lapse of New Start disrupts a legacy of over five decades of bilateral nuclear arms control, and the years of policy now hang in the balance. The world watches as the fate of nuclear disarmament hangs in the balance, with the future of global security at stake.
