Somalia's capital, Mogadishu, is on the brink of a historic shift as residents prepare to cast their votes in a local election on December 25, 2025. This marks a significant departure from the traditional clan-based power-sharing negotiations that have defined Somali politics for decades.
The upcoming vote to elect local council members across the city's 16 districts has sparked controversy and divided opinions. Organized by the federal government, the election has been rejected by opposition parties, who view it as flawed and one-sided.
Somalia's unique political landscape has long relied on clan-based negotiations to select local leaders and parliamentarians, with the elected leaders then choosing the President. Since 2016, various administrations have promised to reintroduce direct, one-person, one-vote elections, but security concerns and internal disputes have hindered progress.
This election, overseen by the National Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission, represents a major step towards fulfilling that promise. Up to 20 political parties are fielding candidates, adding to the excitement and anticipation.
However, it's important to note that the election will not determine Mogadishu's mayor, who also serves as the governor of the central Banadir region. This position remains appointed, as the constitutional status of the capital is still unresolved and requires a national consensus, a prospect that seems increasingly distant due to deepening political rifts between President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and the leaders of Jubaland and Puntland over constitutional reforms.
The central region has an impressive voter turnout, with over 900,000 registered voters across 523 polling stations, according to the electoral commission.
Security challenges, including deadly attacks by the al-Qaeda-linked al-Shabab militant group, have been a constant concern in Somalia. In the lead-up to the local elections, security measures in the capital have been intensified to ensure a peaceful voting process.
Analysts view the Mogadishu vote as a concrete step towards transitioning Somalia away from its longstanding clan-based, power-sharing system. Mohamed Husein Gaas, founding director of the Raad Peace Research Institute, believes that Mogadishu has proven the technical feasibility of local elections.
By proceeding with the vote, the federal government is empowering citizens, enhancing accountability, and moving towards a more inclusive and legitimate state, according to Mr. Gaas. He highlights that plans to expand direct elections to federal member states and eventually to the national level reflect a careful, phased approach aimed at balancing security, political inclusion, and development.
"The process signals a commitment to building a durable Somali state grounded in democracy, public trust, national cohesion, and long-term stability," Mr. Gaas said.
However, opposition parties argue that abandoning negotiated, clan-based arrangements without consensus could undermine Somalia's fragile federal settlement. The elections, which were postponed three times this year, have faced sharp criticism from opposition leaders. They accuse the government of using the process to consolidate power and pave the way for extending the president's term, which is set to end in 2026. Authorities deny these allegations.
As Somalia embarks on this historic journey towards direct elections, the outcome of this vote will be closely watched, and its impact on the country's political landscape remains to be seen. Will it pave the way for a more democratic and inclusive Somalia, or will it further divide an already fragile nation? Only time will tell.
