How this brutal winter storm is even possible with climate change – and maybe even more likely
The frigid temperatures, massive snow, and deadly ice storm brewing east of the Rockies might seem at odds with a warming planet. But these extreme weather events are still occurring, and some could be even more severe than before when conditions are right. Despite the overall warming trend, bone-chilling cold remains a reality, albeit less common and severe than in the past.
Winter is the fastest-warming season in the US, and this winter has already seen more warm temperature records than cold ones in the Lower 48 states. This is largely due to the warmest winter on record in many Western states, with ski areas in Colorado and similar regions struggling with a lack of snow.
While relatively few cold temperature records have been set compared to warm ones in the West, Bernadette Woods Placky, chief meteorologist at Climate Central, emphasizes that this weather is unusually cold, resembling the winters of the Midwest and Northeast from a few decades ago. Climate Central's research shows a rapid increase in the coldest temperatures of the year across US cities since 1970, with Minneapolis experiencing a 12-degree Fahrenheit rise and Cleveland an 11.2-degree increase.
This trend indicates that winters are not becoming as cold as they used to be, making extreme cold snaps rarer. However, it remains to be seen if any all-time cold temperature records will be tied or broken.
Experts, like Jennifer Francis from the Woodwell Climate Research Center, suggest that climate change itself may be a contributing factor to these winter storms and the subsequent Arctic cold. As global warming leads to warmer winters overall, severe winter weather events remain possible and perhaps even more likely. Francis highlights that other consequences of human-caused climate change, such as changes in the polar vortex, are setting the stage for these events.
The polar vortex, a swirling wall of wind typically confining frigid air to the Arctic, can stretch out and bring cold air south when it weakens. This is currently happening across the US due to a significant dip in the jet stream across the Central and Eastern states. Judah Cohen, a research scientist at MIT, links this stretching of the vortex to sea ice loss in the Arctic caused by human-induced climate change. He also notes that above-average snowfall in parts of Siberia and the lack of sea ice in the Barents and Kara Seas further contribute to these stretching events.
Cohen emphasizes the strong relationship between stretched vortex events and extreme winter weather in the US. During periods of rapid Arctic climate change, the polar vortex has become more stretched and variable, increasing the risk of severe winter weather in mid-latitudes, including the US, Europe, and parts of Asia. Cohen concludes that while individual weather events cannot be directly attributed to climate change, the overall trend suggests that climate change has loaded the dice, making such events more likely.
